创新引领，成果丰硕：一季度高质量论文发表概览

中国传统经济思想的概念体系作为表达和传承古代经济思想的重要载体，是建构中国自主的经济学知识体系的“基因库”。这一概念体系在广度上至少涉及17类经济思想范畴，在深度上已触及现代经济学研究的核心要素，形成了具有内在逻辑性关联的语义网络。立足汉语构词、时空转换、多元取向三种生成机制，这一概念体系呈现出独特性、时代性和层次性特征。当前，在坚持“两个结合”中推动中国传统经济思想概念的现代转化，将为推进中国式现代化、建构中国自主的经济学知识体系以及建设中华民族现代文明提供重要启示。

We experimentally and theoretically study decentralized matching markets with transfers of Shapley and Shubik (1972) and Becker (1973). Our contributions are threefold. First, our experiment shows that matching and aggregate surplus achieved are affected by whether efficient matching is assortative and whether the pairwise Nash-Rubinstein bargaining outcome (i.e., an equal split of every efficiently matched pair's surplus) is stable (i.e., in the core), neither of which is predicted to matter in the canonical theory. Second, in markets with equal numbers of participants on the two sides, individual payoffs in our and others' experiments cannot be explained by existing refinements of the core, but are consistent with our noncooperative model's unique prediction, which refines the core. Third and finally, in markets with unequal numbers of participants on the two sides, noncompetitive outcomes--that is, subjects on the long side of the market do not compete fully--are not captured by the canonical theory, but by our noncooperative model a la folk theorems.

This paper extends the Bayesian stability notion of Liu (2020) to define the Bayesian stability of a market state, which consists of a matching outcome and an information structure. The information structure can be arbitrarily heterogeneous and can accommodate learning among agents. We first establish that a Bayesian stable matching function of Liu (2020) can be recast as Bayesian stable market states with homogeneous information. We then illustrate the usefulness of such an extension by (i) refining Liu's Bayesian efficiency notion to define the Bayesian efficiency of a market state and (ii) generalizing his result—that Bayesian stable matching functions are Bayesian efficient—to an analogous one for market states. More importantly, we show that (iii) a decentralized matching process converges to a Bayesian stable market state and thereby offer a decentralized foundation for Liu's Bayesian stable matching function.

有效需求不足是制约我国经济高质量发展的症结之一，近年来出现的家庭部门资产负债表的剧烈调整则是这一症结的集中体现。针对这一新现象，当前经济学理论提供的解释与中国宏观环境并不一致，难以提供实际有效的政策指引。本文认为，在中国房产流动性较低的情形下，收入不确定性冲击是理解中国家庭资产负债表调整的关键。首先，利用我国2015年第1季度~2022年第4季度的宏观季度数据，以及新冠肺炎疫情前后各省份数据，本文的实证研究发现，不确定性冲击确实会触发家庭资产负债表调整。其次，通过将中国家庭资产负债表特征纳入不完全市场异质性代理人模型，并将收入不确定性进一步区分为改变整体收入水平的失业风险升高与不改变整体收入水平的收入波动性增加，本文的定量分析结果表明，当收入波动性上升时，为提升平滑消费的能力，家庭对流动性的需求上升，这导致家庭优化资产组合，减少住房资产的持有，增加流动性资产，减轻债务负担，陷入缩表的状态，反映到宏观经济上就是消费下降、房价降低、债务下降、储蓄升高，这不但与实证结果一致，也与2022年以来中国家庭需求端的行为相吻合。与此同时，失业率冲击除了会产生与收入波动性上升同样的效果外，额外的负向收入效应会进一步降低家庭需求。同时，本文的结果也表明，宏观经济是因，房地产是果，当前我国房地产市场的疲软绝不仅仅是房地产的问题。有些观点认为房价降低、家庭债务增速放缓是家庭购房动机下降导致，因此，降低家庭购房壁垒的政策可以起到刺激房地产市场的作用。这种观点孤立地看待房地产问题，低估了房地产市场问题的严重性，近两年出台的类似政策的效果甚微也印证了这一点。希望本文的研究能为理解当前有效需求不足，以及恢复和扩大消费提供参考。

本文通过构建2013—2018年72个城区人口100万以上城市的异地中考门槛指数，描述了我国异地中考改革推进的基本态势和区域差异。实证研究发现，城市的异地中考门槛越高，流动人口子女在临近中考时留守的概率越高，且该影响在低技能家庭中更为明显。同时，随着子女年级上升，异地中考门槛对父母迁移决策的影响未发生显著变化，表明本文的结果并不是流动人口样本自选择的结果。

This study proposes a new class of heterogeneous causal quantities, referred to as outcome-conditioned average structural derivatives (OASDs), in a general nonseparable model. An OASD is the average partial effect of a marginal change in a continuous treatment on individuals located on different parts of an outcome distribution, irrespective of individuals’ characteristics. We show that OASDs extend the unconditional quantile partial effects (UQPE) proposed by Firpo, Fortin, and Lemieux to that conditional on a set of outcome values by effectively integrating the UQPE. Exploiting such relationship brings about two merits. First, unlike UQPE that is generally not the square root of n-estimable, OASD is shown to be the square root of n-estimable. Second, our estimator achieves semiparametric efficiency bound which is a new result in the literature. We propose a novel, automatic, debiased machine-learning estimator for an OASD, and present asymptotic statistical guarantees for it. The estimator is proven to be the square root of n-consistent, asymptotically normal, and semi-parametrically efficient. We also prove the validity of the bootstrap procedure for uniform inference for the OASD process. We apply the method to Imbens, Rubin, and Sacerdote’s lottery data.

Shapley and Scarf (1974) appeared in the first issue of the Journal of Mathematical Economics, and is one of the journal’s most impactful publications. As we approach the remarkable milestone of the journal’s 50th anniversary (1974–2024), this article serves as a commemorative exploration of Shapley and Scarf (1974) and the extensive body of literature that follows it.

We study a class of priority-based allocation problems, the general job rotation problems first proposed by Yu and Zhang (2020), in which each position is occupied by at most one agent, and each agent occupies at most one position. The priority structure is that at each occupied position, its occupant has the lowest priority while all other agents have equal highest priority; at other positions, all agents have equal priority. This priority structure is the “opposite” to that in house allocation with existing tenants (HET) problem proposed by Abdulkadiroğlu and Sönmez (1999). We propose two constrained efficient mechanisms: one is the modified top trading cycles mechanism, the other is the you request my position, I get your turn mechanism. Both of the two mechanisms are adapted from mechanisms in the HET model. In a special setup that there are equal numbers of agents and positions, each agent occupies exactly one position, and all positions are acceptable for all agents, these two mechanisms yield the same outcome, which is also the outcome of the backward-induction top trading cycles mechanism proposed by Yu and Zhang (2020). In such a setup, our two mechanisms are also weakly group strategy-proof.

While several studies have examined the impacts of air pollution on various aspects, limited research has focused on its causal effect on personal income. Using the matched data from a household survey and satellite-derived air pollution data, we present compelling evidence indicating that a 1 μg/m³ increase in annual PM2.5 density leads to an approximate 0.8% decrease in individual income. Moreover, the detrimental effect of air pollution becomes evident when it surpasses the national safety standard of 35 μg/m³. The underlying mechanism suggests that air pollution results in a decline in health, subsequently affecting work productivity and ultimately leading to reduced personal income. This negative impact disproportionately affects individuals whose income relies heavily on labour productivity, particularly those in vulnerable populations with limited skills and lower education levels. These findings underscore the potential influence of air pollution on labour market outcomes.