经鸿之粟•科研创新：二季度经院师生在国际顶刊等高水平期刊发表论文近20篇

In 2013, China launched a landmark program to monitor air quality and disclose real-time data, significantly increasing the public's access to and awareness of pollution information. The program triggered cascading behavioral changes such as stronger avoidance of outdoor pollution exposure and increased spending on protective products. These behavioral responses mitigated the mortality impact of air pollution. Conservative estimates indicate that the program's health benefits outweigh the costs by an order of magnitude. The findings highlight the benefits of improving public access to pollution information in developing countries which often experience severe air pollution but lack pollution data collection and dissemination.

As a random allocation rule for indivisible object allocation under weak priorities, deferred acceptance with single tie-breaking (DA-STB) is not ex-post constrained efficient. We first observe that it also fails to satisfy equal-top fairness, which requires that two agents be assigned their common top choice with equal probability if they have equal priority for it. Then, it is shown that DA-STB is ex-post constrained efficient, if and only if it is equal-top fair, if and only if the priority structure satisfies a certain acyclic condition. We further characterize the priority structures under which DA-STB is ex-post stable-and-efficient. Based on the characterized priority domains, and using a weak fairness notion called local envy-freeness, new theoretical support is provided for the use of this rule: for any priority structure, among the class of strategy-proof, ex-post stable, symmetric, and locally envy-free rules, each of the above desiderata—ex-post constrained efficiency, ex-post stability-and-efficiency, and equal-top fairness—can be achieved if and only if it can be achieved by DA-STB.

We experimentally study how people form expectations about correlated variables. Subjects forecast a time-series variable A. In treatment Baseline, subjects only observe past values of A. In treatment Correlated, they additionally observe a correlated variable B; A is equally predictable and has the same univariate properties in both treatments. Subjects are significantly less accurate and underreact more in Correlated, inconsistent with Bayesian learning. A structural-model estimation indicates that subjects (i) underestimate the level of correlation and (ii) are insensitive to actual correlation. Our study provides first direct evidence of correlation neglect in the domain of expectation formation.    

This paper firstly shows that a wide range of asset pricing models, including full information and Bayesian rational expectations models, typically imply that agents use the long-run cointegration relationship between stock prices and fundamentals to forecast future stock prices. However, using several widely used survey forecast datasets, we provide robust new evidence that survey forecasts of aggregate stock price indices are not cointegrated with forecasts of fundamentals (aggregate consumption, dividend, and output), both at the consensus and individual level. We argue that it is crucial to relax investors' common knowledge of the equilibrium pricing function to reconcile this finding.

This paper develops a model that allows for heterogenous contemporaneous peer effects among different types of agents who are endogenously selected into different peer groups. We apply our approach to migrant and local students in Shanghai, where local students all go to public schools, but migrant students are endogenously selected into either public schools or lower-quality private schools. The results suggest large contemporaneous peer effects among all student groups. We conduct policy experiments to examine the effect of transferring migrant students from private schools to public schools, and show that peer effect can be substantially more important than the school effect.

In this paper, we consider a class of strategy-form games with both nontransferable and transferable utilities. Inspired by NTU and TU α-core concepts, we first introduce the notion of cooperative equilibria, and prove the existence theorem in this model with finite dimensional strategy spaces. Furthermore, we extend the cooperative equilibrium existence theorem to strategy-form games with infinite dimensional strategy spaces.

数字经济的发展为促进科技成果市场化转化提供了新途径，科技成果的有效转化对培育新质生产力具有重要意义。从科技成果市场化转化三大主体角度，可以通过理论分析和实证验证探索数字经济的发展对科技成果市场化转化的影响和机制。研究发现：数字经济发展促进了科技成果市场化转化，在数字经济新业态下其作用机制是，在科技成果供需主体方面，供需匹配效率、专利质量和知识吸收能力得到了提升；在转化中介和途径方面，产学研开放度、“风险投资—科技成果供给—科技成果需求”高效融合程度和科技服务中介结构活跃度均得到了提升，从而对科技成果市场化转化赋能。进一步研究发现，强化知识产权保护、提升市场一体化水平和国有经济主导程度，对数字经济发展的科技成果市场化转化效应具有积极影响。研究结论丰富了数字经济发展赋能科技成果市场化的文献和经验，为全面深刻把握数字经济优势、提高科技成果市场化转化效率提供了参考。

In a model of priority-based allocation of indivisible objects where there may not be outside options, we characterize the priority structures under which the deferred acceptance algorithm (DA) satisfies various desiderata. We first identify an acyclicity condition that is necessary and sufficient for DA to be group strategy-proof, robustly stable, weakly group robustly stable, or to implement the stable allocation correspondence in Nash equilibria. When there is no outside option and there are more agents than total resources, the condition becomes considerably weaker, and no longer requires the priorities between any pair of objects to be similar. We further find a condition on priorities that is necessary and sufficient for the efficiency or consistency of DA, which is in general stronger than the above incentive properties for this mechanism.

由于观测噪音的影响,现有的绝大多数扩散模型波动函数的识别检验在高频环境下会失效.本文采用局部平均方法对存在观测噪音的数据进行平滑处理,基于平滑后的观测值,结合条件矩和非参数核估计方法构造U统计量对扩散模型波动函数进行识别.所构造的检验统计量在波动函数形式设定正确时,收敛到标准正态分布.蒙特卡罗模拟结果显示,与现有检验方法相比,该统计量具有更合理的检验水平和更强的检验功效.将构造的检验统计量应用于中国银行股价对数化序列的识别过程,得到更为合理的检验结果。

We experimentally examine the effects of advice on decision making in a dictator game in which participants receive no advice, selfish advice, or fair advice before making decisions and the advisors do not benefit from the decision makers’ actions. We find that participants receiving fair advice are more inclined to exhibit fair behavior, whereas those receiving selfish advice are more likely to act selfishly; however, no significant difference in magnitude between the effects of fair and selfish advice is found. We also discover that both types of advice have a more pronounced impact on participants with relatively lower social tendencies, as indicated by the social value orientation test. This study is the first to directly demonstrate the impact of fair and selfish advice in moral dilemmas.

In China, state-owned firms exhibit easier access to external credit but have lower productivity than private firms. We construct a dynamic general equi librium model incorporating heterogeneous financial frictions to investigate their impact on credit resource misallocation and macroeconomic fluctuationsin the Chi nese economy. A calibration of our model suggests that heterogeneity in financial frictions can reduce macroeconomic volatility. The mechanism is that heterogene ity in financial frictions induces the procyclicality of credit resource misallocation within entrepreneurs, thus the procyclicality of productivity loss. The stabiliza tion effect depends on the relative magnitude of the impact of the shock on credit resource misallocation within entrepreneurs compared to its impact on the out put. In addition, we show that the cost of the stabilization effect of heterogeneity in financial frictions is that it reduces the economy’s aggregate TFP and output at the steady state. Our results imply that neglecting heterogeneity may overestimate the impact of financial frictions on economic volatility in previous studies.