经鸿之粟 | 三季度经院师生高质量学术成果概览

该成果80余万字，综合性、多层次、多视角、立体地考察了中国传统经济思想在世界经济思想发展史中的历史地位与现代价值，学术价值主要表现在三个方面：

一是研究视野，立足于全球视野，将中国传统经济思想的动态演化置于中外历史发展与交织互动的进程中考察，剖析其深层内核和基本精神，明确其所具有的重要地位。同时坚持“两个结合”，对其进行必要的现代转化和诠释，以将历史与现实、传统与现代相联结；

二是理论构建，综合运用多种研究方法，构建了深入认识与系统研究中国传统经济思想的理论分析框架，包括中国传统经济思想的演进机制、光辉成就的四个维度（丰富性、独特性、创新性、分析性）、海外传播的路径、传承创新的方法；

三是研究内容，采用历史与逻辑相统一的方法，在中国传统经济思想的历史分期、光辉成就、历史局限、基本特征、海外传播、世界影响、历史地位与现代价值等方面形成了许多独到且比较有说服力的见解。

该成果为客观合理评价中国传统经济思想的历史地位与现代价值提供了参照系，为传统经济思想的传承创新、建构中国经济学自主知识体系、推动文明交流互鉴等研究提供学术支撑，并将积极推动相关研究不断走向深入。

In the allocation of indivisible objects under weak priorities, a common practice is to break the ties using a lottery and randomize over deterministic mechanisms. Such randomizations usually lead to unfairness and inefficiency ex-ante. We propose and study the concept of ex-ante fairness for random allocations, extending some key results in the one-sided and two-sided matching markets. It is shown that the set of ex-ante fair random allocations forms a complete and distributive lattice under first-order stochastic dominance relations, and the agent-optimal ex-ante fair mechanism includes both the deferred acceptance algorithm and the probabilistic serial mechanism as special cases. Instead of randomizing over deterministic mechanisms, our mechanism is constructed using the division method, a new general way of constructing random mechanisms from deterministic mechanisms. As additional applications, we demonstrate that several previous extensions of the probabilistic serial mechanism have their foundations in existing deterministic mechanisms.

We use China's growth experience as a laboratory to study how reductions in administrative and regulatory entry barriers contribute to growth. We develop a model of endogenous productivity and market structure with heterogeneous firms and frictional entry and calibrate it to Chinese manufacturing firms. We show that the reduction of entry barriers brings about 1.05 percentage points of productivity growth over the 1990–2004 period, accounting for 18.3% of the productivity growth in the 2004–7 period. A decomposition exercise shows that entry mainly affects growth through promoting a more competitive market structure, which more than offsets the negative Schumpeterian effect.

The presence of observation errors limits players' ability to detect deviations, and hence the possibility of efficient cooperation in repeated games. When players interact repeatedly in multiple games with imperfect observation in at least one game, however, we find a novel spillover effect that enhances players' ability to sustain cooperation. This finding suggests the presence of observation error can increase the likelihood of efficient cooperation when players interact in multiple repeated games simultaneously. Our result has important implications for industrial organizations, relational contracts, and international cooperation.

This study proposes a new class of heterogeneous causal quantities, referred to as outcome-conditioned average structural derivatives (OASDs), in a general nonseparable model. An OASD is the average partial effect of a marginal change in a continuous treatment on individuals located on different parts of an outcome distribution, irrespective of individuals’ characteristics. We show that OASDs extend the unconditional quantile partial effects (UQPE) proposed by Firpo, Fortin, and Lemieux to that conditional on a set of outcome values by effectively integrating the UQPE. Exploiting such relationship brings about two merits. First, unlike UQPE that is generally not -estimable, OASD is shown to be -estimable. Second, our estimator achieves semiparametric efficiency bound which is a new result in the literature. We propose a novel, automatic, debiased machine-learning estimator for an OASD, and present asymptotic statistical guarantees for it. The estimator is proven to be -consistent, asymptotically normal, and semi-parametrically efficient. We also prove the validity of the bootstrap procedure for uniform inference for the OASD process. We apply the method to Imbens, Rubin, and Sacerdote’s lottery data.

数字经济的发展深刻影响农村的生产生活，但是不同数字经济新业态之间的相互协同如何影响农村的收入和收入差距却鲜有文献讨论。本文从理论和实证两个方面分析了电子商务和数字金融的协同是否促进农村的共同富裕。借助电子商务进农村综合示范项目和北京大学数字普惠金融指数进行研究，本文发现两者的协同显著促进了农民收入的提高，降低了农民人均可支配收入的基尼系数、分位数差和方差。研究进一步发现：电子商务与数字金融的协同在样本时间段内的普惠性逐渐提升，缩小了农村的收入差距；两者的协同对低收入县域（农村劳动力密集县、传统金融发展落后县和低农机动力水平县）农民收入增长的贡献更强。家庭层面的研究发现，两者的协同推动了农村家庭本地就业，促进了工资收入和自营收入的提高，且降低了自营收入的差距。本文的研究对数字经济如何促进乡村振兴和推进农村共同富裕有一定的启发意义。

本文探讨了中国养老保险体系的收入分配效应。首先，我们利用CHFS数据实证发现了养老金缴费端存在累退性、收益端存在累进性的典型事实。其次，基于典型事实，本文构建了一个不完全市场异质性个体模型，并利用中国数据校准了参数。最后，反事实模拟分析表明，降低缴费基准下限可以起到提高个体参保意愿、降低社会整体缴费负担、削弱养老金“逆向调节”作用、利好中低收入与中低财富群体并最终有利于总消费与总产出的政策效果。

在当前复杂多变的国际形势下，国际贸易环境的高度不确定性成为我国面临的重要挑战。厘清贸易冲击对社会稳定产生的影响以及如何进行风险应对具有重要的学术价值和现实意义。文章通过整理历史资料，基于近代开放五口通商导致的“内河过岭”路线的弃用这一准自然实验，利用闽、赣、粤三省229个县长达154年的面板数据，考察了近代开埠这一贸易冲击对国内社会稳定的影响。研究表明：（1）相较于非沿线县，开放五口通商对“内河过岭”沿线县的社会稳定带来了显著负面影响，且主要表现为社会治安事件的显著增加。（2）“内河过岭”路线的弃用对非沿线县产生了溢出效应，官民冲突、财产类社会治安事件、暴力类社会治安事件的溢出效应分别为100千米、200千米和250千米。（3）机制分析发现，对社会稳定的负面影响主要来自商路易道带来的贸易机会减少和基层社会抵御风险能力欠缺；前者导致运输成本增加和市场可达性降低，并对沿线县的市场发展带来长期负面影响，后者则主要是因为民间组织稀缺而无法提供足够的公共品来进行风险应对。文章揭示了贸易冲击与社会稳定之间的因果关系，也为当前国际贸易环境变动下如何发挥基层力量实现社会治理提供了历史镜鉴。

教育是影响劳动者生产效率、收入和职业选择的关键因素,教育代际流动性不仅是代际流动的主要机制,也是判断代际流动性的重要指标;通过了解能力在教育代际流动性中的作用,有利于我们更好评估教育资源的配置效率.影响教育代际流动性主要有劳动者个人能力因素与家庭及社会因素,目前的文献主要关注家庭和社会层面的因素.与现有文献不同的是,本文通过使用2018 年和2010年的CFPS数据,考察认知能力对我国教育代际流动性的影响,以及这种影响的城乡和性别差异,同时也通过分析认知能力在教育代际流动性中作用的变化来了解我国代际流动性的变化趋势.本文主要结论是:认知能力是影响我国教育代际流动性的重要因素,认知能力对我国代际教育流动性的影响存在着显著的性别差异和城乡差异,认知能力对教育代际流动性的影响出现了显著的上升,这些结论意味着我国教育资源配置是以效率为导向的,认知能力对教育代际流动的积极影响有利于对城乡差异和性别差异产生积极修正作用。