经鸿之粟 | 2024年第四季度经院师生高质量学术成果概览

We experimentally examine the Becker-Shapley-Shubik two-sided matching model. In the experiment, the aggregate outcomes of matching and surplus are affected by whether equal split is in the core and whether efficient matching is assortative; the canonical cooperative theory predicts no effect. In markets with an equal number of participants on both sides, individual payoffs cannot be explained by existing refinements of the core, but are consistent with our noncooperative model's predictions. In markets with unequal numbers of participants, noncompetitive outcomes, are not captured by the canonical cooperative model, but are included in the set of predictions in our noncooperative model.

This article proposes a structural change test for copula models based on the kernel smoothing method. The proposed approach enables adaptable estimation of the dynamic marginal distributions, either parametrically or semi-parametrically. The test statistic is formulated via the weighted quadratic distance between the local smoothing copula and the empirical copula function, using pseudo-observations of marginal distributions. The test statistic is pivotal with an asymptotic standard Normal distribution, irrespective of the marginal distributions, parameters, and estimations, and is consistent against a wide range of smoothly transitioning structural changes as well as abrupt structural breaks for copula models. Monte Carlo simulations show that the test performs well in finite samples and outperforms existing tests in the case of periodic changes.

We build a two-sector general equilibrium model that incorporates abatement technologies and search-and-matching frictions in the labor market to examine how different environmental regulations affect emission reduction and unemployment. By emphasizing the role of various decisions of micro firms, labor market frictions, and the cross-sectoral labor movement in the transmission process of environmental regulation, we demonstrate the conflict between environmental regulation and unemployment in different parts and aspects of economic behavior, providing a theoretical basis for analyzing and solving the contradiction of “environmental governance-economic sustainability-unemployment”. Using Chinese data to calibrate the model, we find that the equilibrium unemployment caused by the environmental regulation during the 12th Five-Year Plan period is far less than the reduction in production employment of directly regulated enterprises caused by the same environmental regulation, which proves that the econometric regression method with regulated enterprises as the research object will greatly overestimate the unemployment effect of environmental regulation. However, we predict that during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, as environmental regulations become stricter, the intertwining of strict regulations and labor market frictions will make the transfer effect less effective in mitigating the direct negative impact of environmental regulations on employment. We also discover that there are two main reasons why quotas generate less unemployment than emission taxes when the same total emission reduction target is achieved: (1) Quota leads to more job creation caused by abatement requirements, while emission tax does not cause such job creation until a reasonably high threshold is reached. The emission tax causes the shrinking of the polluting sector by adding the cost of the emission tax to the product price and transferring it to consumers, which boosts the negative scale effect of environmental regulation on unemployment. (2) Under the emission tax, more unemployed workers move into the clean sector, resulting in labor market congestion and economic structural imbalances, cutting down the ability of the clean sector to absorb unemployed workers.

In this study, we examine how local government debt responds to environmental policies in China. We show that when an environmental policy impacts the economy, local governments are likely to increase debt issuance, with this effect becoming stronger when local officials have greater career incentives within the Chinese bureaucratic system. Over-accumulation of local government debt, which leads to social welfare losses, is closely tied to the urgency local officials feel to secure promotions. Our analysis offers valuable insights for better coordination between fiscal and environmental policies.

 本文基于估算获得的1978—2021年中国农村劳动力流动量及流动方向数据，探究了劳动力流动内在机理，并基于空间互动模型检验了农村劳动力流动的动因与障碍。研究发现：农业与非农部门同一属性因素对劳动力流动的作用力相反，分别扮演“推—拉”角色，且两部门影响因素有序联动，使劳动力流动量和流动方向遵循最优路径，有序流入帕累托最优地区。本文研究对促进农村劳动力在省际和城乡间的优化配置具有重要意义。

新质生产力是基于中国进入新发展阶段推动经济高质量发展实践而提炼出的新概念、新范畴，是马克思主义政治经济学中国化时代化的重大理论创新。文章在分析新质生产力的理论渊源、内涵突破及其术语革命的基础上，探讨新质生产力及其相关理论对中国自主经济学知识体系建构的启示。研究发现：（1）新质生产力概念的提出为学界提炼标识性概念提供了一个典范，其作为建构话语体系的基石，可以提升中国经济学概念供给的数量和质量。（2）新质生产力理论作为中国特色社会主义政治经济学的基础理论，为其他理论创新提供了基础，而新质生产力及其概念体系则为理论创新提供了概念支撑并指出了新的研究方向。（3）新质生产力作为马克思主义政治经济学的又一次术语革命，为建构中国自主经济学知识体系和融通古今中外学术资源提供了有益指导。

新质生产力是新时代中国生产力实践和理论创新的标识性概念，是对马克思主义生产力理论的中国化发展和时代化创新，是习近平新时代中国特色社会主义经济思想的重要组成部分和最新理论成果。学界对此展开了热烈讨论，但普遍以静态的眼光分析新质生产力的理论创新，缺乏从思想史角度对新质生产力创新脉络进行系统梳理和深层思考。为此，文章从思想史视角出发，动态考察马克思主义生产力理论的中国化过程和新质生产力的思想创新脉络。研究发现：（1）生产力思想经历了从“传统”到“新质”的历史演进，中国从近代学习西方生产力理论和马克思主义生产力思想的接受者，变成当下推动生产力理论突破创新的引领者。（2）新质生产力是在现代化实践中不断升华的生产力理论认知，表征着新时代中国共产党领导人民对生产力现代化转型的最新见解和具体实践。而生产关系变革是催生新质生产力理论的主动因素。（3）以传统生产力理论关于“去哪儿”的探讨为基础，新质生产力理论围绕“怎么去”展开了更深入的分析，以产业变革为路径，以生产要素创新性配置为抓手，以生产关系为助力，更加清晰地阐明了“科技创新—生产力发展”之间的逻辑关系。

本文探讨了货币政策通过家庭资产负债表向消费的传导，指出货币政策不但具有状态依赖性，而且具有时长依赖性。基于中国家庭住房资产和家庭债务快速增长，且家庭不能进行二次抵押的特征事实，本文首先构建了一个包含房产以及房屋抵押贷款的异质性家庭动态离散选择生命周期模型，然后通过仿真模拟的方式，将货币政策区分为利率短期下降和利率长期下降两种情形，探讨了货币政策对家庭消费的影响。研究发现，利率下降对家庭消费的影响取决于该下降所持续的时间。当利率下降持续时间较短时，由贷款成本下降产生的收入效应较明显，消费需求短期内得到释放，但长期内消费需求会回到初始状态。当利率下降持续时间较长时，收入效应会逐渐被替代效应、债务积压效应以及预防性储蓄效应所取代，消费需求会先上升后下降，并最终低于初始状态，房价同样会先上升后下降，但最终高于初始稳态，而家庭债务则持续上升，家庭流动性持续下降，与2014年以来的中国宏观经济环境一致。本文认为，加快构建新发展格局、实施扩大内需战略，应保持货币政策稳健性，合理使用货币政策工具，避免公众形成宽松货币环境的预期。本文为理解中国特殊房贷制度安排下货币政策通过家庭部门传导的机制提供了新的理论视角，也为政府完善宏观经济治理方式提供了政策启示。

We investigate the effects of safety regulations on the Total Factor Productivity (TFP) and overall performance of firms. We focus on the industrial safety regulation—the Decision on Further Strengthening Work Safety—implemented in 2004 to address the frequent occurrence of industrial accidents. Industrial safety accidents, due to their potential for causing significant casualties, substantial social impact, and clear accountability in a short timeframe, often receive heightened attention from local government officials, in contrast with environmental pollution incidents. We discovered that safety regulations notably decrease the TFP of firms. Their overall output, profits, export volumes, and other aspects of business performance, including financing costs, are adversely affected. Additionally, innovation initiatives and the number of new entrants also significantly declined. Firms respond to increased costs by reducing labor input, but there is no change in capital input. Furthermore, the study contrasts the differing impacts of industrial safety accidents and environmental pollution incidents. Despite the negative effects of the safety regulations on TFP as well as other economic outcomes, there are social welfare gains caused by the safety regulations. This research provides insights into the interplay between social governance and corporate development. It suggests that when the government engages in necessary social governance, it should provide targeted policy support to offset the negative effects on business operations and create a more favorable business environment.

Strategyproof mechanisms have become the predominant choice for educational institutions. However, both laboratory experiments and empirical evidence highlight the persistent occurrence of strategic misreporting, leading to adverse consequences. This underscores the need to examine the reporting strategies of students, particularly those with varying cognitive abilities, across different decision environments. We present an experimental comprehension test of reporting strategies using computerized opponents to precisely control the levels of strategic uncertainty. The results reveal that removing strategic uncertainty does not significantly affect truth-telling rates. However, subjects with median cognitive ability are more truthful under strategic uncertainty, especially when information is incomplete. Additionally, providing information about priorities has a negative and significant impact on truth-telling rates. The findings of this research demonstrate that constructing a simplified market environment using computerized agents and providing relevant feedback to students can effectively enhance their understanding of the matching mechanism and nudge them to make optimal strategy choices.

现代化产业体系是加快发展新质生产力的重要载体，对推动高质量发展具有重要意义。文章基于马克思主义经济学的视角，对现代化产业体系建设进行了学理分析。从主要内容来看，现代化产业体系由服务业、工农业和基础设施体系构成，其中以工业和农业为主体的实体经济在现代化产业体系中居于核心地位，而服务业和基础设施体系分别发挥着渗透融合与支撑保障的作用。现代化产业体系的形成和发展是生产力、生产关系和上层建筑的作用和创新性发展的结果。从驱动因素来看，技术变革、制度保障和文化价值塑造在建设现代化产业体系的过程中相互依存、各司其职、不可替代，是推动现代化产业体系形成和发展的三大关键动因。由此，文章提出了包括两条建构路径和三层次产业融合化发展在内的建设现代化产业体系的演进逻辑。

处理非线性模型中的样本选择问题和内生变量问题是计量经济学关注的重点与难点。本文提出采用控制函数法对具有内生变量的分位数样本选择模型进行识别与估计。参考Arellano和Bonhomme（2017），我们将结果方程和选择方程中不可观测扰动项的联合分布建模为Copula函数，修正了分位数样本选择问题所产生的选择偏误。在此基础上，我们提出在结果方程中加入用基函数逼近的控制函数作为额外的解释变量来处理内生变量问题。在处理内生变量问题上，控制函数方法与逆分位数回归相比易于实现，避免了求解非凸目标函数的优化问题。进一步地，我们证明了估计量的一致性与渐近正态性，通过蒙特卡洛模拟给出了该估计量的有限样本结果，并与逆分位数回归进行了比较。最后，我们将该模型应用于分析已婚女性的教育回报率，体现了本模型的实用价值。