经鸿之粟 | 经济学院2025年一季度师生高质量学术成果概览

数字平台作为新的商业资本的具体形态，凭借其加速制造业商品流通与资本周转的功能，能够提取制造业企业创造的价值从而获取利润。数字平台的“加速周转”效应与“价值提取”效应共同作用于制造业企业利润率，随着制造业的数字平台投入越过一定门槛，前者的影响逐渐被后者抵消，致使利润率下降。本文吸收任务模型和利息议价模型中对流通时间和博弈过程的设定，以一个拓展的资本循环模型刻画了上述过程；随后通过投入产出表数据构建数字平台中间投入量指标，使用门槛回归等方法验证了上述机制。相关政策需要推动制造业企业积极接入数字化产业生态系统，使平台与制造业企业之间的博弈从竞争走向合作，才能使得数字平台成为中国企业打通要素循环、塑造新发展格局的关键力量。

We study information design on top of the allocation problem with costly verification àla Ben-Porath et al. (2014); we study the single-agent case with the principal having a positive reservation value. The agent learns a private signal about the allocation value to the principal from a signal distribution which is influenced by an information designer. The principal designs a mechanism to maximize her net value based upon the designed information. We identify (i) the agent-optimal information, which features pooling high values at a signal that is just worth verification for the principal, and (ii) the principal-optimal information, which features full information. Moreover, we show that any agent-optimal information is principal-worst, even though the two parties’objectives are partially aligned and no transfer is invoked.

The world is undergoing a monumental energy transition. Leveraging China’s rollout of natural gas infrastructure, this study estimates the effects of energy access on mortality from 2004 to 2015. The data link the detailed locations and timings of pipeline setup with quarterly administrative death records. The results indicate a 53% increase in household gas usage and a 12% decline in death rate. Mortality reduction is largely driven by decreases in cardiorespiratory diseases and lung cancers, and particularly in the female population. This health benefit is primarily attributed to reduced air pollution due to the shift from dirty fuels to natural gas. The findings underscore the significant potential of transition fuel investments for public health.

We study mechanism design with flexible but costly information acquisition. There is one principal and four or more agents, who share a common prior belief over a set of payoff‐relevant states. The principal proposes a mechanism to the agents, each of whom can then acquire information about the state by privately designing a signal device. As long as it is costless for each agent to acquire a signal that is independent of the state, there exists a mechanism that allows the principal to implement any social choice rule at zero information acquisition cost for the agents.

This study examines the persistent impact of historical Chinese clan culture on contemporary female labor force participation. Using the hand-collected genealogy data from China, we find that traditional clan-based gender biases significantly suppress women's employment, with the husband's clan heritage strongly influencing the wife's work decisions. The gender bias embedded in Chinese clan culture is the primary driver linking clan heritage to reduced female labor force participation. While women from clan-oriented backgrounds exhibit labor market advantages, these are primarily driven by self-selection into the workforce rather than direct causal effects.

This paper firstly shows that a wide range of asset pricing models, including full information and Bayesian rational expectations models, typically imply that agents use the long-run cointegration relationship between stock prices and fundamentals to forecast future stock prices. However, using several widely used survey forecast datasets, we provide robust new evidence that survey forecasts of aggregate stock price indices are not cointegrated with forecasts of fundamentals (aggregate consumption, dividend, and output), both at the consensus and individual level. We argue that it is crucial to relax investors’ common knowledge of the equilibrium pricing function to reconcile this finding.

China has achieved a comprehensive victory against extreme poverty, yet whether every individual has been lifted out of poverty remains relatively unexplored. Children are the most susceptible to intra-household inequality as their consumption is primarily controlled by their supervisors, making the standard per-capita indices unsuitable for assessing their poverty. This paper employs the DLP model to estimate children’s resource shares and poverty rates among various household types in rural China. Based on a representative sample, we demonstrate that left-behind children (LBC) receive approximately 5 % fewer resource shares and are ten times more likely to fall into poverty than non-left-behind children (NLBC). Girl children, compared to boys, generally reside in larger families with more children, resulting in smaller portions of household consumption and higher poverty rates. Further analysis strengthens the validity of our identification and indicates that our measure of child poverty is largely consistent with household consumption patterns. While most rural children have been lifted out of extreme poverty, child poverty remains severe when assessed against the standards of developed countries.

In a model of priority-based allocation of indivisible objects where there may not be outside options, we characterize the priority structures under which the deferred acceptance algorithm (DA) satisfies various desiderata. We first identify an acyclicity condition that is necessary and sufficient for DA to be group strategy-proof, robustly stable, weakly group robustly stable, or to implement the stable allocation correspondence in Nash equilibria. When there is no outside option and there are more agents than total resources, the condition becomes considerably weaker, and no longer requires the priorities between any pair of objects to be similar. We further find a condition on priorities that is necessary and sufficient for the efficiency or consistency of DA, which is in general stronger than the above incentive properties for this mechanism.

This study investigates the identification and inference of quantile treatment effects (QTEs) in a fuzzy regression discontinuity (RD) design under rank similarity. Unlike Frandsen et al. (2012, Journal of Econometrics 168, 382–395), who focus on QTEs only for the compliant subpopulation, our approach can identify QTEs and average treatment effect for the whole population at the threshold. We derived a new set of moment restrictions for the RD model by imposing a local rank similarity condition, which restricts the evolution of individual ranks across treatment status in a neighborhood around the threshold. Based on the moment restrictions, we derive closed-form solutions for the estimands of the potential outcome cumulative distribution functions for the whole population. We demonstrate the functional central limit theorems and bootstrap validity results for the QTE estimators by explicitly accounting for observed covariates. In particular, we develop a multiplier bootstrapbased inference method with robustness against large bandwidths that applies to uniform inference by extending the recent work of Chiang et al. (2019, Journal of Econometrics 211, 589–618). We also propose a test for the local rank similarity assumption. To illustrate the estimation approach and its properties, we provide a simulation study and estimate the impacts of India’s 40-billion-dollar national rural road construction program on the reallocation of labor out of agriculture.