经鸿之粟 | 二季度经院师生高质量学术成果概览

货币对于东西方文明发展来说都很重要，但 对 中 国 的 意 义 则 更 加 重大。宋代国家纸币的发明，形成了中西方货币制度发展的第一次分流。从明代中叶起，随着政府货币主导权的消退，货币发行逐渐由民间机构主导，货币形态和信用层级多样，形成了一种地域性货币体系，通过记账转账、划拨冲销、信用支付、对账清算、异地汇兑等机制，实现伸缩性的货币供给和信用扩展。而西方则通过从金银复本位到金本位制的演进及银行制度的发展，逐步形成并强化以银行体系为核心的纸币发行和存款创造货币的方式，构成了中西方货币制度发展的第二次分流。明清至近代时期中国独特的货币制度发展路径和货币文化，高度市场化的多层次货币和短期信贷体系以及多样化的货币和信用工具创新等，导致中西方在货币金融体系动态演进过程中呈现不同的发展路径。关于中西方货币制度两次分流的考察，为深入认识中西方历史发展道路和文明特性提供了新的视角。

This paper reveals that the reduction in the US-China trade deficit during the trade war obscured reporting discrepancies in US imports of Chinese products due to tariff evasion. We empirically examine the effect of the US-China trade war on tariff evasion in US imports of Chinese goods and provide direct evidence that market demand of entry states contributes significantly to tariff evasion. Using the input-output table, we find that a one standard deviation increase in local demand causes a 1.312-fold rise in tariff evasion for affected products post–trade war. This effect mainly works through intermediate goods, and its impact grows as importers' tariff liabilities increase. Further analysis considering local social environments shows that voters' attitudes toward trade protection and the development of labor unions play crucial roles in mediating the influence of market demand on tariff evasion.

Chernozhukov, Fernández-Val, and Luo (2023, CFL (2023) hereafter) considered a distribution regression model subject to sample selection with a binary selection mechanism. In this paper, we show how to identify and estimate a semi-parametric distribution regression model subject to a censored selection rule. With censored selection, we do not need to impose the usual outcome exclusion restriction or exclusion of the level of the latent selection variable from the selection sorting function for model identification, unlike CFL (2023). We propose new semiparametric estimators and corresponding inference procedures for model parameters and related functional parameters. We apply our method to investigate wage inequality in the UK for the period 1978–2000 using the Family Expenditure Survey (FES) data. Our findings reveal that (i) the selection sorting exclusion and outcome exclusion restrictions imposed by CFL (2023) are rejected; (ii) there is negative selection into work at most quantile levels for females, but not for males; (iii) in contrast to CFL (2023), our selection sorting effect pattern does not offer clear evidence on assortative matching or glass ceiling in the UK labor market; (iv) the latent gender wage gaps after correcting for selection bias are about 25%–50% of CFL (2023)’s estimates, and are also significantly smaller than the observed wage gaps; (v) similar to CFL (2023), there exists some strong evidence on gender discrimination in the UK labor market.

党的二十届三中全会明确指出，"科学的宏观调控、有效的政府治理是发挥社会主义市场经济体制优势的内在要求。"《管子》轻重之学所蕴含的宏观经济治理智慧，不仅是中国古代经济思想的瑰宝，更为当代经济治理提供了宝贵启示。特别是在统筹有效市场与有为政府关系、健全现代市场体系、提升宏观调控精准性等方面，《管子》思想仍具有重要的现实指导意义。第一，在政府与关系方面，《管子》"市者货之准"与"轻重之术"的辩证统一，为处理好有效市场与有为政府关系提供了思想资源。这启示我们既要充分发挥市场在资源配置中的决定性作用，又要通过科学的宏观调控弥补市场缺陷，实现"看不见的手"与"看得见的手"的有机协同。第二，在宏观调控体系方面，"平准基金""官山海"等制度设计，体现了跨周期调节的战略思维。这对应现代经济治理中的预期管理、逆周期调节等理念，特别是在粮食安全、能源安全等关键领域的战略储备制度建设上具有参考价值。第三，在国际经济竞争方面，"天下下我高"的博弈策略，对当前全球产业链重构背景下的经济安全战略具有启示意义。这要求我们既要深度参与国际经济循环，又要通过关键核心技术攻关、重要产业链自主可控等措施，增强发展的安全性和主动权。

在全面建设社会主义现代化国家的新征程上，我们需要深入挖掘《管子》等传统经济思想的现代价值，推动其创造性转化与创新性发展。通过系统梳理"轻重之理"的市场规律认知和"轻重之术"的国家调控智慧，为构建中国自主的经济学知识体系提供深厚的文化滋养，为完善现代宏观经济治理体系提供历史借鉴。

The measured markups in the U.S. have been increasing since the 1980s. This paper quantitatively evaluates the impact of surging mergers and acquisitions (M&As) on the aggregate markup. We propose a dynamic general equilibrium model featuring heterogeneous firms, endogenous markups, and an M&A market to explore the aggregate implications of M&As under different antitrust policy regimes. Firms are heterogeneous in productivity, while more productive firms are larger in size and charge a higher markup, and the M&A market is characterized by a search and matching process. Successful purchases of other firms improve the productivity of the acquirer but also raise its markup. We calibrate the impact of M&As on markups at the firm level to the data counterpart. Our quantitative results show that surging M&As account for about 60% of the 9.75 percentage points increase in aggregate markup in the U.S. from the 1980s to the 2010s. The quantified model also generates changes in the markup distribution comparable to the data.

Political conflicts often cause disruptions in agricultural trade, yet previous studies have not paid much attention to the food market. Focusing on China, this paper examines the impact of diplomatic relations on agricultural trade. We match a panel dataset on agricultural exports to China from 168 trading partners with our constructed ranking index of diplomatic relations. Using different strategies to address the endogeneity issue, our analysis finds robust evidence for a strong and positive effect of diplomatic affinity on bilateral agricultural export flows. Exploring the potential mechanisms, we uncover that the increased agricultural exports work primarily through enhancing bilateral communication. Based on a quantitative trade model with Stone-Geary preferences, we then quantify the welfare effects from changes in diplomatic relations. We show that an increase in the ranking of diplomatic relations with trading partners leads to welfare gains of 0.5-1.8% through agricultural trade.

1980年的 “美国会议”，促进了发展经济学在中国的流行。发展经济学触及发展战略问题，但不具有战略学属性。1981-1988年的 “中国会议”，引起了一波发展战略研究 “热”。由经济社会发展战略学演变而来的经济发展战略学盯住发展问题，但很少关注安全问题。新中国成立以来，发展问题与安全问题同时并存、 相互交织、分阶段演进。这个典型事实呼唤建立一个涵盖发展与安全两大关切并且更具包容性的知识体系即经济战略学。就中国当前经济战略而言，“四新一高”即新发展理念、新发展阶段、新发展格局、新质生产力、 高质量发展，关乎经济战略理念构建、形势判断、行动选择、首要任务，为实现远景目标提供了战略支持。中国制定实施经济战略还应处理好战略行动协同、战略规划运用、战略目标权衡、战略体系完善等问题。

最近，De Chaisemartin 和 D’Haultfoeuille（2020）、Borusyak 等（2024）研究表明，在多时点双重差分模型（简称“多时点 DID”）中使用固定效应（Fix Effect，FE）模型估计政策效应时，FE 估计量等于一系列不同组和不同时期处理效应的加权平均，但权重可能是负值。负权重问题会极大地扰乱 FE 估计量的经济学解释。上述研究均不包含协变量，但在国内实证研究中，研究者常把协变量 Xit 同固定效应一道纳入回归方程，以此控制个体特征从而保证外生性。本文建立了一个与国内研究者利用 DID 进行政策评价做法保持一致的分解定理，发现 FE 估计量中产生负权重的一个新机制，即将时变协变量 Xit 引入 DID模型也会导致负权重问题，即使在单时点 DID 或两期情形中，这一问题仍然存在。本文给出了在单时点下 FE 估计量为何会产生负权重的直观解释。进一步分析发现，当重叠性假设弱满足时，FE 估计量中越有可能出现负权重。因此，本文给出两个检验用以量化由于FE 估计中自动分配的权重所导致的偏误以及负权重问题。为了克服 FE 估计量中存在的偏误，本文给出了一种新的异质性稳健 DID 估计量，并证明了其不存在负权重问题，推导了相应的大样本性质用于统计检验。基于本文结论，我们以低碳城市试点对碳排放的影响为例说明本文方法的实用性。

突发公共卫生事件冲击下，增强家庭的风险保障尤为重要。本文基于最近五次中国家庭金融调查（ＣＨＦＳ）数据，采用双重差分模型，考察了突发公共卫生事件对家庭商业保险购买决策的影响及潜在机制。研究发现，公共卫生事件爆发后，风险暴露强度较高的家庭显著提升了商业保险参保的程度和广度，同时降低了投资风险资产的概率。与健康风险紧密相关的保障型寿险和健康保险参保程度显著增加，且增长幅度随着风险暴露强度递增；而投资型寿险和其他类型保险的参保行为并未受到显著影响。在限定风险偏好稳定的家庭样本中，上述结论仍然稳健，表明健康风险感知强化可能是公共卫生事件影响家庭投保决策的关键传导机制。经济脆弱性较高以及事前健康风险较高的家庭对于风险冲击的投保响应更为强烈。本文的研究为理解中国家庭风险应对和保险规划，并为引导居民形成合理风险感知、优化家庭保险决策提供了政策启示。