【主题】Ex Ante Decision Error: Contingent Reasoning from Hypothetical Knowledge
【时间】2021年5月10日 星期一 14:30–16:00
【摘要】To err is human. It has been said that “an error doesn't become a mistake until you refuse to correct it”. Several choice puzzles in the literature point to errors which may be traceable to a failure in contingent reasoning. In addition to Allais’ (1953) common-consequence and common-ratio problems and Ellsberg’s (1961) three-color problem, we will discuss the Monty Hall three-door problem, the Cason-Plott (2014) treatment of the Becker-DeGroot-Marschak mechanism, and the acquiring-a-company problem (Samuelson-Bazerman, 1985) which relates to Akerlof’s (1970) lemons problem and the winner’s curse in common value auctions (Capen, Clapp, and Campbell, 1971; Charness and Levin, 2009). Motivated by an increasingly known businessman example in Savage (1954), we formalize his suggestion of a sure-thing principle with knowledge and offer a definition of Reliance on Hypothetical Knowledge which has implications on contingent reasoning, often arising in the literature relating to strategyproofness. This helps shape the design of experiments using a treatment which exposes subjects to hypothetical knowledge relating to the choice situation at hand before making the actual decision. Results from preliminary studies indicate that our hypothetical knowledge treatment is effective in enhancing the quality of decision making by reducing the incidence of failure in contingent reasoning.