【主 题】Logic-Based Updating
【报告人】赵晨（助理教授，香港大学）
【时 间】2024年3月13日周三14:00-15:30
【地 点】经济学院701会议室
【语 言】英文
【摘 要】We build on AGM belief revision (Alchourron, Gardenfors, and Makinson (1985)) and propose a class of updating rules called pragmatic rules. Pragmatic updating applies to multiple priors and requires that the agent's posteriors be the subset of her priors under which the realized event occurs with probability 1, if such priors exist. We construct a propositional language based on qualitative probability, and demonstrate the strong relation between belief updating rules and belief revision rules in this language. We show that an updating rule is consistent with AGM belief revision if and only if it is pragmatic. While maximum likelihood updating is pragmatic in general, full-Bayesian updating is not. We characterize maximum likelihood updating within the AGM framework, and show that full-Bayesian updating can be obtained by dropping one of AGM's postulates.
【报告人简介】Chen Zhao received his Bachelor of Economics at the University of Hong Kong (HKU). After obtaining his Ph.D. and M.A. in economics from Princeton University, Chen joined HKU, his alma mater, in 2017 as an assistant professor. His research interests center around decision theory and behavioral economics, with a focus on issues related to non-Bayesian updating and bounded rationality. His research has been published at leading academic journals such as Games and Economic Behavior and Theoretical Economics.
