【主 题】Missing Women: A Quantitative Analysis
【报告人】殷永昆（助理研究员，山东大学经济学院）
【时 间】2024年4月3日周三13:30-15:00
【地 点】高等研究院楼232会议室
【语 言】中文
【摘 要】The sex ratio, males per female, is well above one in China, India, and other South and East Asian countries. Parents in these countries want more boys, exercise sex-selective abortions, and invest less in their daughters' education. Why do parents favor sons over daughters? What policies can be effective in normalizing the sex ratio? To answer these questions, I build an overlapping-generation model of fertility, sex selection, the quantity quality trade-off, and marriage and estimate it for India. The quantitative analysis reveals that the main drivers of missing women are economic factors, i.e., old-age support by sons, dowry payment for daughters, and labor market discrimination against women. If the gender differences in these economic factors are removed, the sex ratio at birth (SRB) would reduce from 1.14 to 1.05. The fertility rate would drop from 3.1 to 2.4, and the share of women with secondary education would increase from 49% to 72%. The sons would also benefit from lower fertility, and the share of men with secondary education would rise from 65% to 79%. Once the economic factors become gender-neutral, eliminating intrinsic son preferences has a small additional effect. A subsidy for female births or female education, commonly-implemented policies in India and elsewhere, can both reduce the SRB. However, the former increases fertility and reduces children's education and women's labor supply, while the latter has the opposite effects. Finally, a pay-as-you-go pension system can lower the SRB to 1.09, but it also reduces children's educational attainment, as parents value them now less.
【报告人简介】殷永昆，山东大学经济学院助理研究员，西班牙货币与金融研究中心（CEMFI）经济学博士。研究领域为宏观经济学和家庭经济学。论文曾发表于European Economic Review.
