【主题】Relaxation of the One-child Policy and the Fertility Rebound in China's Wealthy Cities
【时间】2021年10月13日 星期三 10:00-11:30
【摘要】Wealthy cities tended to have low birth rates in China, but this pattern has changed in conjunction with the substantial relaxation of the one-child policy after 2011. This study develops a conceptual framework for the relation between average household wealth and compliance with the one-child policy across cities and predicts that the compliance rate was greater in wealthier cities when above-quota births were fined according to household wealth and with limited liability. The relaxation of this policy has eliminated this inequality, leading to an increase in wealthy cities' birth rates relative to those of other cities. A causal analysis exploiting variations in city-level birth rates and fertility policy compliance rates from 2008 to 2019 supports this hypothesis. In other words, the fertility relaxation has resulted in a greater proportion of newborns in wealthy cities, which is expected to increase the next generation's human capital.
【报告人简介】徐航天，湖南大学经济与贸易学院教授、院长助理，日本东北大学经济学博士，从事城市和区域经济学研究，在Journal of Urban Economics、Journal of Regional Science、China Economic Review、Journal of the Japanese and International Economies、Japanese Economic Review等期刊发表论文10多篇，主持国家自然科学基金青年项目、面上项目以及教育部人文社科基金青年项目。