【主题】Does correlation really matter in risk taking? An experimental investigation
【时间】2021年12月7日 星期二 13:00-14:30
【地点】Zoom，会议ID: 848 978 93394，会议密码: 770969
【摘要】Two prominent alternatives to expected utility theory, regret and salience theory, rely on the premise that correlation between acts impacts choices. Recent experimental studies on salience theory seem to provide evidence for such correlation effects. However, they fail to control for event-splitting effects (ESE). In the first part of this paper, we seek to disentangle the role of correlation and event-splitting in two settings: 1) the common consequence Allais paradox; 2) choices between Mao pairs. In both settings, we find evidence suggesting that recent findings supporting correlation effects are largely driven by ESE. Once controlling for ESE, we find no consistent evidence for correlation effects. In the second part of the paper, we test for correlation effects in a novel task that can detect correlation effects even when they are of second-order importance only. More explicitly, subjects choose between two lotteries with the same marginal distribution but different relative skewness, receiving either immediate feedback or not after choice. We find a precisely estimated null effect. Our results thus shed doubt on the suitability of salience and regret theory as theories of decision making under risk.