采访视频链接：http://english.cntv.cn/2015/09/02/VIDE1441186081128175.shtml
1. What do you think of where China's at in the economic cycle? The performance of the economy is as an outcome in response to price. Internally we face the commodity prices; externally we face the exchange rates. China seems to have changed its 10-year-old exchange rate policy of appreciating against the US dollars. China is closely watching how the US side would react to this and the rising role of RMB in the world. Internally, there is a very severe over-capacity in industrial production. This would mean over-supply and declining prices. Even worse, many investment projects are suspended because officials do not put their approval stamps for the fear of corruption charges. The good thing is the anti-corruption campaign seems to come to a new stage with almost all high-profile corrupted officials being caught. The government could almost free its hand now to take good care of the economy. Hopefully the economy could run in a cleaner manner that all citizens benefit. 2. What are the economic headwinds we should be mindful of? China will inevitably open its financial market up for international participants in the long run. Just like no one wants to be the first to suggest the stepping down of anti-terrorism measures in the airports, no one wants to be accountable for any financial crisis that may arise from the opening up of the financial market and the removal of capital control. The decision to open has to come from the very top, a consensus from the top leaders. As long as we don't see a new mechanism to share risk of policy failures, innovation is hard to take place. Also, there is a very fine line of market and government. The government should always be extremely cautious about when and how to cross the line. 3. Your thoughts on the recent market volatility? Are they overdone, overhyped, overfeared? The large swing in China's stock market has to do with the composition of investors, among others. It is the opposite to the case of the US. China's stock market is made up of largely individual investors not institutional investors. Individual investors, especially those beginning investors, tend to over-react, exhibiting a common herd-behavior. We must understand that the sharp decline of the stock market is not a direct result of a sharp decline of the real economy. In fact, China's stock market has not been reflecting the actual performance of the real economy. For more than a decade till a year ago, China's stock market had been one of the worst performing stock markets in the world while China's real economy had been the strongest growing economy. |
