【主讲】Alexander Coutts (助教授，里斯本新大学经济与工商管理学院)
【主题】No One to Blame: Biased Belief Updating Without Attribution
【时间】2018年11月6日 (周二) 14：00-15：30
【地点】上海财经大学经济学院楼702室
【语言】英文
【摘要】A growing body of evidence suggests that individuals are on average overconfident about their ability, affecting career and financial decisions, among others. We investigate how overconfidence may persist in the face of objective feedback. Feedback in most contexts comes bundled with other dimensions of uncertainty. We consider a natural context of updating with two dimensions of uncertainty, two person teams, where the ability of each teammate is unknown. We distinguish two theories of self-attribution bias, (1) noisy: which generates positive asymmetric updating about self, and as such has been studied previously, and (2) fundamental: individuals misattribute positive feedback to themselves, and negative feedback to their teammate. Our study is the first to be able to distinguish these types of attribution biases. In fact we find that neither explains the patterns observed. Individuals are overconfident, and asymmetrically biased in their updating. However they significantly under-weight negative signals, without attribution to either teammate.
