【主讲】杜在超 (教授，西南财经大学)
【主题】A Simple and Robust Counterfactual Impact Evaluation: Measuring the Effects of Sichuan Earthquake on Economic Growth
【时间】2018年11月20日 (周二) 15：30-17：00
【地点】上海财经大学经济学院楼312室
【语言】英文
【摘要】In this paper we propose a simple and robust counterfactual impact evaluation method. Our method follows the spirit of Hsiao et al. (2012), but our method is more robust to model misspecification. This is confirmed by our Monte Carlo studies. In the empirical application, we apply our method to evaluating the effects of Sichuan earthquake on its local economy. We find that after the earthquake on average Sichuan's quarterly GDP growth rate significantly decreases by 8.34%, quarterly consumption growth rate increases by 1.25%, quarterly investment growth rate rises by 7.97% and its quarterly total employment growth rate decreases by 2.63%.
