【主讲】罗杰 (清华大学中国财政税收研究所 助理研究员)
【主题】The Duration of Sovereign Default
【时间】2018年5月7日 (周一) 15：30-17：00
【地点】上海财经大学经济学院楼701室
【语言】英文
【摘要】The observed sovereign default spells are lengthy on average, with large variability in duration, both across countries and over time. Moreover, in the data, the distribution of the durations of default is highly skewed and looks exponential. We show that a model of dynamic contracting with private information, calibrated to the international data on sovereign default, can quantitatively account for these observations. Our model also suggests that the larger output variability that international lending supports may explain the observation that the average duration of default is more than two times longer in the thirty years after than before 1980.
