【主讲】赵波 (北京大学)
【主题】Fluctuating like China: Structural Change and Labor Reallocation in a Lewis Economy
【时间】2017年5月22日 (周一) 14：00-15：30
【地点】上海财经大学经济学院楼701室
【语言】英文
【摘要】Business cycle fluctuations in China differ systematically from business cycles in industrialized countries: Over the last four decades China has experienced remarkably smooth aggregate employment fluctuations combined with volatile reallocation of labor between agriculture and non-agriculture. While agricultural employment is procyclical in industrialized countries, it is strongly negatively correlated with aggregate GDP in China. In this paper, we first document novel business cycle facts across a wide range of countries. Second, we provide an unified theoretical framework of business cycle as well the as structural change. We calibrate the model to China and show that the model is consistent both with China's structural transformation and with the business cycle properties of China. Moreover, as productivity in the model economy keeps growing, the implied business cycle properties become more and more similar to those of the United States.
