【主讲】包特 (University of Groningen)
【主题】When Speculators Meet Constructors: Positive and Negative Feedback in Experimental Housing Markets
【时间】2015年12月23日 (周三) 15：30-17：00
【地点】上海财经大学经济学院楼401室
【语言】英文
【摘要】Asset markets are characterized by positive feedback through speculativedemand. But housing markets distinguish themselves from other asset markets inthat the supply of housing is endogenous, and adds negative feedback to the market.We design an experimental housing market and study how the strength of thenegative feedback, i.e., the supply elasticity, affects market stability. In the absenceof endogenous housing supply, the experimental markets exhibit large bubbles andcrashes because speculators coordinate on trend-following expectations. When thepositive feedback through speculative demand is offset by the negative feedback ofelastic housing supply the market stabilizes and prices converge to fundamental value.Individual expectations and aggregate market outcome is well described by a behavioralforecasting heuristics model. Our results suggest that negative feedback policiesmay stabilize speculative asset bubbles.
