【主讲】J. Scott Davis (Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas)
【主题】The Cyclicality of (Bilateral) Capital Inflows and Outflows
【时间】2016年3月21日 (周一) 15：30-17：00
【地点】上海财经大学经济学院楼701室
【语言】英文
【摘要】Recent research has shown that gross capital inflows and outflows are positivelycorrelated and highly procyclical. This poses a puzzle since most theory predicts thatcapital inflows and outflows should be negatively correlated, and while capital inflowsshould be procyclical, capital outflows should be countercyclical. This previous workhas examined the behavior of aggregate capital inflows and outflows (capital flows be-tween a country and the rest of the world). This paper shows that bilateral capitalinflows and outflows (flows between a pair of countries) are also positively correlatedand strongly procyclical. This empirical finding poses a new puzzle. The data sug-gests that any model that can explain capital ows at the bilateral level needs to relyon market incompleteness and non-diversfication. In addition, the data suggests thatthis positive correlation and procyclicality is largely the feature of crisis episodes. Af-ter controlling for crisis episodes, we nd that bilateral capital flows move positivelywith GDP in the country receiving the capital and co-move negatively in the countrysending the capital.
