【主讲】Kai Zhao (Department of Economics, University of Connecticut)
【主题】China's One- and Two-Child Policies
【时间】2016年11月21日 (周一) 15：30-17：00
【地点】上海财经大学经济学院楼701室
【语言】英文
【摘要】We develop a life-cycle model of fertility and investment in human capital, and use it to analyze the likely consequences of China's decision to abandon the ``so-called'' one-child policy in place since 1980. We pay special attention to the short-run and long-run responses in fertility and education choices of the Chinese households, and their effects on the dependency ratio and the sustainability of China's public pension system. We calibrate the model using the cross-sectional data prior to 1970 when the population control policies were not in place, and then simulate the calibrated model over time to evaluate the impact of the relaxation of China's one-child policy. Our preliminary quantitative results find that the fertility, saving and human capital investment decisions are highly interdependent. When the current Chinese households are shocked by the policy change during the life cycle, their fertility choices may not immediately respond because the fertility choices are dependent on their other life-cycle decisions. However, the future cohorts will respond to the policy change differently.
