【主讲】Chenguang Wang (Michigan State University)
【主题】Adaptation to Climate Change in Agriculture: The Role of Crop Attributes in Farmland Value Formation
【时间】2014年10月22日 (周三) 15：30-17：00
【地点】上海财经大学经济学院楼602室
【语言】英文
【摘要】I econometrically estimate a joint structural model of crop choices and farmland value using U.S. county-level historical data for 1978-2007. I capture the differential returns to growing two-dozen field crops across different counties through a series of interactions between crop prices, county soil and climate characteristics, and quantifiable crop attributes (e.g. root depth and stomata density) that correlate with yield response to climate and soil conditions. Thus, my model allows me to study the heterogeneous impacts of climate change on agricultural chain (from crop yield to land use choice and farmland value) across counties. Holding crop prices fixed at historical levels, I predict county-level changes in farmland value due to marginal changes in climate. I find that a one-centimeter decrease in rainfall under rainfall deficiency condition during the growing season leads to changes in county farmland value ranging from -160% to -0.2%, while one-centimeter increase in rainfall under rainfall surplus condition leads to changes in farmland value ranging from -3.1% to +53%. Meanwhile, one-degree decrease in temperature under cold stress leads to changes in county farmland value ranging from -103.8% to +0.8%, while a one-degree increase in temperature under heat stress leads to changes in farmland value ranging from -13.3% to +0.1%. My results imply that a uniform 5°F increase in temperature and 8% increase in precipitation across all U.S. counties would lead to an overall increase in U.S. farmland values of 5%. Moreover, the selective adaptation of crop attributes via the adoption of new crops, new crop varieties, and attribute-enhancing chemicals would likely reinforce the beneficial impacts of climate change. (JEL classification numbers: Q1, Q2, Q4)
