546期 12月2日 ：Managing Self-organization of Expectations through Monetary Policy: a Macro Experiment（Cars Hommes, Professor in University of Amsterdam）

【主讲】Cars Hommes (Professor in University of Amsterdam)

【主题】Managing Self-organization of Expectations through Monetary Policy: a Macro Experiment

【时间】2014年12月2日 (周二) 15：30-17：00

【地点】上海财经大学经济学院楼710室

【语言】英文

【摘要】We use laboratory experiments to study individual expectations and aggregate macro behavior in a New Keynesian framework. Four different aggregate outcomes arise: convergence to equilibrium, explosive behavior along inationary or deationary spirals, persistent or dampened oscillations. A heuristics switching model, driven by relative performance, explains these patterns as emerging properties of the path-dependent self-organization process of heterogeneous expectations leading to coordination on an almost self-ful lling rule. A more aggressive Taylor rule can manage the self-organization process adding negative feedback to the overall positive feedback system, making coordination on destabilizing trend-following expectations less likely and coordination on stabilizing adaptive expectations more likely.