【主讲】陈衡 助教授 (香港大学)
【主题】Falling Dominoes: A Theory of Rare Events and Crisis Contagion
【时间】2013年5月6日 (周一) 15：30-17：00
【地点】上海财经大学经济学院楼801室
【语言】英文
【摘要】Crises rarely occur, but when they do they typically arrive in waves. We show that the rarity of crises itself is an important contagion mechanism. A multiple-country dynamic global game model is constructed, where players are uncertain about the true model of the world. Observing a rare success elsewhere can substantially change their expectations con- cerning the payoffs from attacking or defending the regime. Such dramatic revisions in beliefs, amplified by strategic complementarity in actions, may lead to a series of attacks in other countries. The period of crisis can be long lasting, but will eventually come to an end.
