【主讲】Hongchun Zhao 助教授 (华中科技大学)
【主题】Understanding Global Grain Price Fluctuations: An SVAR Approach
【时间】2013年5月13日 (周一) 15：30-17：00
【地点】上海财经大学经济学院楼801室
【语言】中文
【摘要】By constructing a structural model of the global grain market, this paper studies the effects of some proposed causes of the real grain prices surge since 2002, such as the biofuel policies in the European Union and the United States, adverse weather, world business cycles, and precautionary demand for grains. The results do not accord with explanations of the 2002-08 grain price wave based on unexpectedly poor grain harvests. Instead, this surge was mostly caused by fluctuations in the flow demand for grain driven by biofuel policies, world business cycles, and precautionary demand. The effects of grain supply and world business cycles are smooth, while changes due to the effects of biofuel policies and precautionary demand are more volatile. In addition, there is evidence that both biofuel policies and precautionary demand shifts are relevant in two prices surges, respectively in 2003 and 2008. With the model estimates decomposing the real grain prices into these explanations, this paper also compares how different shocks impact on macroeconomic aggregates in China and India.
