【主讲】张庆华 副教授 (北京大学光华管理学院)
【主题】Fundamentals in China's Housing Markets
【时间】2013年5月24日 (周五) 15：30-17：00
【地点】上海财经大学经济学院楼701室
【语言】英文
【摘要】This paper examines the role of changes in fundamental factor s in driving the rising residential housing prices between 2002 and 2008 across major housing markets in China. We propose an empirical approach using both city level and residential development project level data to answer two questions: How important are changes in fundamentals, such as urban hukou population, wage income, urban land supply and construction cost, in explaining housing price appreciation in major Chinese cities? In which cities has the price appreciation significantly deviated from changes in fundamentals? The results suggest that for most of the cities in our sample, actual housing price appreciation can be largely explained by changes in fundamental factors. Seven cities seem to have "overly high" actual appreciation rates, which may indicate a higher risk of bubbles in these cities.
