【主讲】Chew Soo Hong 教授 (新加坡国立大学)
【主题】Longshot risks: Theory and evidence from a large stake experiment
【时间】2013年12月24日 (周二) 15：30-17：00
【地点】上海财经大学经济学院楼710室
【语言】英文
【摘要】This study investigates attitude towards longshot risks in an incentivized experiment. Using fixed-odds-fixed-outcome state lottery tickets in China, we construct a set of lotteries, which have explicit probabilities of winning between 1/10 and 1/100,000 and payoffs ranging from RMB10 to RMB10,000,000, grouped under three levels of expected payoffs: RMB1, RMB10, and RMB100. Maintaining the same winning probability or winning outcome, subjects tend to switch from being risk seeking to risk averse as mean payoff increases. In addition, we observe significant incidence of longshot preference, i.e., switching from being risk averse to risk seeking as winning probability decreases while keeping the same mean payoff. Moreover, both of these choice patterns are closely related to the observed incidence of common-ratio Allais behavior. Taken together, our findings are compatible with non-expected utility models relying on nonlinear probability weighting, but not with those involving multiple moments
