【主讲】Liugang Sheng 助教授 (香港中文大学)
【主题】News Shocks and the Current Account: Evidence from Giant Oil Discoveries
【时间】2014年3月10日 (周一) 15：30-17：00
【地点】上海财经大学经济学院楼801室
【语言】英文
【摘要】This paper provides empirical evidence of the effect of news shocks on the current account using plausibly exogenous variation in the timing of worldwide giant oil discoveries as a directly observable measure of news shocks about future output ̶ the delay between a discovery and production is on average 4-6 years. We first present a simple model predicting opposite effects for news and materialized shocks on the current account through both saving and investment channels. Quantitatively, the size of the (negative) anticipation effect amounts to 40 percent of the (positive) effect of discoveries on the current account following oil production.
