【主讲】Erik Snowberg 教授 (California Institute of Technology)
【主题】Confidence and Overconfidence in Political Economy
【时间】2012年9月17日 (周一) 15：30-17：00
【地点】上海财经大学经济学院楼701室
【语言】英文
【摘要】This paper studies the role of overconfidence in political behavior. We posit a simple model of overconfidence in beliefs. The model predicts that overconfidence leads to ideological extremeness, increased voter turnout, and increased strength of partisan identification. Moreover, the model makes many nuanced predictions about the patterns of ideology in society, and over a person's lifetime. We test these predictions using novel survey data that allows for the measurement of overconfidence, and find that the predicted relationships are statistically and substantively important.
