【主讲】刘铮 Research Advisor (Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco)
【主题】Uncertainty Shock Are Aggregate Demand Shocks
【时间】2012年12月20日 (周四) 15：30-17：00
【地点】上海财经大学经济学院楼701室
【语言】英文
【摘要】We study the macroeconomic effects of uncertainty shocks in a DSGE model with labor search frictions and sticky prices. In contrast to a real business cycle model, the model with search frictions implies that uncertainty shocks reduce potential output, because a job match represents a long-term employment relation and heightened uncertainty reduces the value of a match. In the sticky-price equilibrium, an uncertainty shock regardless of its source consistently acts like an aggregate demand shock because it raises unemployment and lowers inflation. We present empirical evidence based on a vector auto regression model and using a few alternative measures of uncertainty that supports the theory's prediction that uncertainty shocks are aggregate demand shocks.
