【主讲】Jia Yuan 助教授 (澳门大学)
【时间】2011年10月13日 (周四) 15：30-17：00
【地点】上海财经大学经济学院楼801室
【语言】英文
【摘要】I explore a unique individual level lottery betting panel data and show that lottery gambling is significantly affected by lottery winning history although this winning history is shown to be merely an exogenous random shock. This panel data records lottery players' collective lottery betting behaviors on a Chinese online lottery purchase website. Especially, this website lists each player's lottery investment performance: the ratio between the lottery return and the lottery investment in the past three months. This ratio is shown to be an independent random shock across players, and therefore, provides a clean identification for the regression as it is orthogonal to all the unobserved heterogeneities. Based on the data with around 400,000 observations, I find that this random shock significantly affects lottery players' purchasing behaviors. Specifically, collective lottery gamblers are significantly more likely to join a lottery package proposed by someone with higher winning rate; lottery players are spending more money on the proposers with higher return rates. These findings contribute to the economics literature by identifying a new gambling irrationality, other than the "Lucky Store Effect" by Guryan and Kearney (2008, AER), and the "Hot Hand Fallacy" by Clotfelter and Cook (1993, Management Science).
