【主题】Capital Leakage, House Prices, and Consumer Spending: Evidence from Asset Purchase Restriction Spillovers
【报告人】张宇 (助理教授, 北京大学光华管理学院)
【时间】4月9日（星期二） 15：30-17：00
【地点】经济学院楼401
【语言】英文
【摘要/Abstract】This paper studies the consequences of capital leakage across the housing markets, from large cities to small cities, on house prices and consumer spending. Using exogenous policy changes- Purchase Restrictions that restrict housing asset purchases in certain large Chinese cities and comparing cities with different exposures to asset purchase restriction spillovers, we find that the capital leakage from large regulated cities causes a significant rise in housing prices in the neighboring small non-regulated cities. These plausibly exogenous housing boom in the nonregulated cities lead to a substantial increase in household automobile spending. The spending responses are highly heterogeneous across household types, suggesting redistributive effects of housing market capital leakage. We find the largest spending response for locals born in the cities they reside in, no significant average responses among migrants, and a U-shaped spending profile across age groups, consistent with predictions from Favilukis and Van Nieuwerburgh (2017). Quasi-experiment estimates of MPC from housing wealth is larger than the OLS estimate because housing prices in part driven by savings propensities introduce a negative omitted variable bias in the OLS estimate. This highlights that the source of house price variations matters in understanding housing wealth effects.
