【主题】Is China Fudging its GDP Figures? Evidence from Trading Partner Data
【报告人】Mark M. Spiegel（美国旧金山联邦储备银行副行长）
【时间】10月29日（星期二） 10：30-12：00
【地点】经济学院楼701室
【语言】英文
【摘要】How can we reliably estimate fluctuations in economic activity for a country with statistics of questionable quality? We propose using imports, measured as reported exports of trading partners, as a proxy for activity. These statistics are likely to be relatively well-measured as well as free from domestic manipulation. Imports and measured GDP move closely for countries with strong statistical systems. However, the co-movement is much weaker for countries with poor systems, because GDP is less reliable. We apply this insight to China. Using principal components, we derive activity indices from a wide range of indicators (including GDP) and examine their fit with (trading-partner reported) imports.. In terms of measuring cyclical fluctuations, the quality of Chinese statistics has broadly become more reliable over time, though the evidence is more mixed for GDP. GDP adds little information relative to combinations of other indicators. Since 2013, GDP growth has shown little volatility around a gradually slowing trend. Other measures, including our preferred index of eight non-GDP indicators (which we call the China Cyclical Activity Tracker, or C-CAT) as well as imports, do not show this reduction in volatility. Since 2017, the C-CAT slowed from well above trend to close to trend. As of mid-2019, it was giving the same cyclical signal as GDP.
